Will Virginia Stay Blue In This Presidential Election?

In 2008, Barack Obama was the first Democrat to take Virginia since 1964. In 2012, the contest between the president and Republican hopeful is still too close to call.

President Barack Obama took Virginia in 2008, marking the first time the Commonwealth has gone blue since 1964.

But it's too early to tell which way voters will go on Tuesday, or whether the changing demographics of Virginia and voter enthusiasm will have an effect on which candidate takes Virginia's 13 electoral votes.

Virginia is one of just a few swing states in this year's presidential election. 

“The challenge for the Obama campaign is to try to rekindle the magic,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a professor of political science at University of Mary Washington. “You had great excitement among African Americans, and young people especially, four years ago. The indication so far is that there’s some enthusiasm, but not comparable to four years ago.”

A Nov. 4 poll from the Pew Research Center shows Obama slightly leading Romney nationwide. The poll showed the president with 50 percent support among voters; Romney had 47 percent.

In Virginia, a poll last week from CBS News, the New York Times and Quinnipiac showed Obama with "a narrow edge in Virginia, leading Romney 49 percent to 47 percent and in Florida, where he leads 48 percent to Romney's 47 percent," according to an article in U.S. News and World Report.

Areas like Loudoun and Prince William Counties – outer suburbs between the Red rural areas and Blue urban centers – will be major players this year. Both presidential candidates have made several visits to those areas this year.

“Elections in Virginia are all about the outer ring suburbs,” he said.

Obama won Fairfax County in his historic 2008 victory in Virginia with 60 percent of the vote, compared to Republican Candidate John McCain’s 39 percent. Obama carried the county by approximately 109,000 votes.

“Obama’s well provisioned to do well in Fairfax [County],” Farnsworth said. “The Republican message of ‘small government’ is a real tough sell in a county full of government contractors and government workers.”

Virginia has more registered voters now than in 2008: As of Nov. 1, there were close to 5.43 million total registered voters, according to the State Board of Elections, compared to about 5 million in 2008. But only 4.84 million of this year's registered voters are active.

In Herndon there were 10,655 registered voters for the 2008 election. The state’s population rose from about 7.7 million in 2008 to 8 million as of 2010, according to census data.

And statistics from the Virginia State Board of Elections show the rate of new voter registrations during the first six months of this year has been considerably slower than 2008. By June 30, 2008, Virginia registration had seen an increase of 22.4 percent, with 139,379 new voters. But as of June 30, 2012, only 82,284 new voters had registered.

Both candidates have spent significant time in Virginia this year. President Barack Obama visit George Mason University in Fairfax City twice in as many weeks in October. And on Monday, Mitt Romney will visit campus as well.

“This election is really a jump ball. A number of people are very frustrated with the unsatisfactory economic performance of the last four years, and they blame Obama for that," Farnsworth said. "But there are also a lot people who aren’t that happy with Mitt Romney. They don’t feel like he understands them or has a sense of the struggle that ordinary people are going through these days.”

See also:
Will Virginia Split Ticket Voters Rule on Election Day?
Virginia Could Be Deciding Factor in This Year's Election

Stay tuned to Patch for coverage all day Tuesday. Not sure who you're voting for? Click on our elections tab for information about all races.

William Campenni November 05, 2012 at 02:02 PM
Yes. Obama will be reelected by a 61-39% margin in Virginia and will win 435 electoral votes. The 3 DC votes will go to Romney because they are so corrupt and incompetent in the District that they will program the voting machines incorrectly. In the Second Term, which the media will label The Second Coming, we will move on to broad sunlit uplands. Unemployment will remain at 8%, but no one will care because unemployment benefits will be extended to 10,400 weeks to allow jobless college graduates a full lifetime of benefits on the dole until their Social Security will kick in. The 47% will become the 93%, and food stamps will replace dollars as the coin of the Obama Realm. Medical care will be free, but there will be no doctors to get it from. The tax rates will go to 95% for the wealthy, and both of those remaining rich guys will get what they deserve. The military, now numbering 100 guys and a military band for Obama's state functions, will be used to quell the riots from the few remaining non-believers clinging to their guns and bibles. And the oceans will no longer rise.
William Campenni November 05, 2012 at 02:08 PM
Oh - and the national debt will soar to $30 trillion, but no one will care because the Tim Geithner will call in a guy from the old Weimar republic to show them how to overprint money and food stamps with new values, so you can buy your milk with $5,000,000 bills.
Mike November 05, 2012 at 03:14 PM
The media would need to call it something else, he was called the 2nd coming in 2008 :)
Another Patriotic Liberal November 05, 2012 at 10:09 PM
Campy must be a millionaire. Those are the only people Romney will help. Vote for America AND Americans. Vote for Obama. If you vote for Mitt, you vote for the Cayman Islands.
Bob November 06, 2012 at 03:52 AM
Too bad Another Pat Lib has such a low self-esteem that he/she thinks that millionaires are some strange preferred humanoid type. If you understand Romney's thought process and listen to his words, you realize that he pulls for ALL Americans to succeed, rich, poor, and everyone else. But obviously, you have fallen under the spell of the great divider, who only cares about his own success, vanity, and personal wealth (that he got from fame in elections).
Ann H Csonka November 06, 2012 at 06:50 AM
Ann H Csonka November 06, 2012 at 07:10 AM
Bob-- Romney speaks the words "ALL Americans" but his actions and interactions belie the words. He really has little patience with people if they do not follow his orders. And he's a financier; does not have the type of business experience that one would have if they actually started a built a business in manufacturing, services, etc Strangely, though, he's a puppet and pawn of those like Grover Norquist and the Koch brothers .. and now Paul Ryan. But he fits the puppet-master's and other extreme right goals and objectives. The bills that Republicans have passed since they took control of the House in 2010 offers a clear blueprint of the agenda that a Romney administration would be primed to establish: fewer jobs, a retrogressive social agenda, dirty-energy slaves who have no apparent concepts of biota and ecology or much of any natural sciences, immigrant bashing, destroy health care and enrich health insurance companies (to heck with real people--sharing and relinquishing power to others is weakness and a slippery slope to dreaded socialism). Btw, we have a couple of friends who are millionaires -- no problem with money that is earned. and they are good people. Oh, yeah -- others ARE capable of comprehending words, too.
Another Patriotic Liberal November 06, 2012 at 09:15 AM
Bob forgets that Mitt disparaged 47% of Americans, not in public, but when he thought only his plutocrat fellow travelers were listening. Don't be fooled by the phoniest candidate in our lifetimes. Vote for Obama.
Another Patriotic Liberal November 06, 2012 at 10:32 AM
Senior Romney economic advisers? Glenn Hubbard and Gregory Mankiw, Vin Weber and Jim Talent -- The first two were Dubya's Council of Economic Advisors chairpersons. The last two were also Dubya's advisors. So, if it's economic disaster you like, these guys deliver. Mitt? Make better choices! You'd have to have your head in the sand to want to go backwards like that. Move Forward. Be reality based. Re-elect President Obama.
Mike November 06, 2012 at 02:56 PM
If Bush was so bad, why did Obama rehire Bush's Fed Chairman, Mr. Ben Bernanke? Patriotic and liberal...oxymoron if I ever saw one!
Don Joy November 07, 2012 at 01:15 PM
Watts November 07, 2012 at 10:50 PM
Don Joy 2:44 pm on Wednesday, October 24, 2012 Watts, Rasmussen is, historically, the most accurate pollster.
Watts November 07, 2012 at 10:52 PM
Don Joy 7:22 pm on Wednesday, October 24, 2012 No, your Old Dominion poll is actually the outlier. That's plain. As to the rest of what you said, I suggest you take a look in the mirror.


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